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Introduction xxiv
Part I: Strategic Risk and Risk Planning
Chapter 1 The Risk Structure 3 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 3 Foundation Topics 6 Risk Documentation Capture 6 Industry Benchmarks 6 Project Plans 7 Lessons Learned 7 Customer Agreements 8 Project Assumptions 8 The Project Charter 8 Risk Roles and Responsibilities 9 Risk Manager 9 Risk Owner 10 Risk Team 10 Project Roles 10 Risk Responsibilities 11 The Risk Archive 11 Risk Repository 11 Risk Register 11 Exam Preparation Tasks 14
Chapter 2 Risk Environment and Culture 19 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 20 Foundation Topics 23 Risk Attitude, Appetite, and Maturity 23 Tolerance 23 Threshold 23 Appetite 24 Attitude 25 Risk Maturity 25 Risk Assumptions 26 Constraint-Driven Risks 27 Stakeholders and Risk Culture 27 Salience Model 29 Stakeholder Tolerances 30 Risk Owners 31 Stakeholder Risk Planning 32 Program Stakeholders 33 Portfolio Stakeholders 33 Data Processing 33 Organizational Infrastructure 33 Communication 34 Facilities, Equipment, and Hardware 34 Capacity 34 Exam Preparation Tasks 35
Chapter 3 Tolerance, Thresholds, and Triggers 39 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 39 Foundation Topics 43 Risk Absorption 43 Organizational and Project Risk Tolerance 44 Organizational Risk Tolerance 44 Project Risk Tolerance 45 Thresholds 45 Triggers 46 Recognizing and Resolving Cultural Discord 46 Exam Preparation Tasks 48
Chapter 4 Strategic Risk 53 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 54 Foundation Topics 57 Risk Process Alignment 57 Risk Management Planning 57 Risk Identification 57 Risk Analysis 57 Qualitative Analysis 58 Quantitative Analysis 58 Risk Response Development 59 Risk Response Implementation and Control 59 Risk Process Tools 59 Risk Sources and Their Roles 60 Risk Alliances 61 Exam Preparation Tasks 62
Chapter 5 The Risk Management Plan (RMP) 67 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 68 Foundation Topics 72 The Three R''s: RAM, RACI, and RBS 72 Responsibility Assignment Matrix (RAM) 72 RACI (Responsible Accountable Consult Inform) Chart 73 The Risk Breakdown Structure 74 Risk Responsibility and Accountability 75 Risk Responsibility in the Risk Management Plan 75 Risk Accountability in the Risk Management Plan 76 Risk Communication Documentation 77 The Author 78 The Timing 78 The Recipients 78 Communications Modes 79 Risk Education and Training 80 Exam Preparation Tasks 82
Chapter 6 Connecting Others in Risk 87 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 87 Foundation Topics 91 Stakeholders and Their Roles 91 Strategic Risk and the Stakeholders 92 Team Engagement in Appetites, Attitudes, and Priorities 93 Forming 93 Storming 93 Norming 93 Performing 94 Adjourning 94 Team-Driven Data-Gathering Techniques 94 Brainstorming 94 Nominal Group Technique 95 Focus Groups 95 Interviews 96 The Delphi Technique 96 Meetings 96 Rules of Engagement 98 Tolerance Rules 98 Trigger Rules 99 Escalation Rules 99 Reporting Rules 100 Information-Sharing Rules 100 Risk Education Beyond the Strategic 100 Exam Preparation Tasks 101
Part II: Risk Identification
Chapter 7 Practical, Team-Based Risk Identification 107 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 108 Foundation Topics 111 Identification Approaches 111 Mind Mapping 111 Affinity Diagram 112 Root Cause Analysis 113 Checklist Analysis 115 Assumptions Analysis 115 SWOT Analysis 116 Expert Judgment 117 The Risk Questions 117 Preliminary Data Analysis 118 The Risk Register 119 Exam Preparation Tasks 120
Chapter 8 Constraints and Assumptions 125 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 125 Foundation Topics 129 Constraints as Risk Drivers 129 Known-Knowns 129 Unknown-Knowns 130 Unknown-Unknowns 130 Known-Unknowns 131 Pure Versus Business or Speculative Risk 131 Changes in Constraints 131 Assumptions as Identified Risks 132 The Open Assumptions and Constraints Discussion 133 Assumptions, Constraints, Tolerances, and Thresholds 133 Exam Preparation Tasks 134
Chapter 9 Applying Triggers and Thresholds 139 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 139 Foundation Topics 143 Compliance and the Implications of Tolerance 143 Tolerance- and Threshold-Driven Triggers 144 Visible Triggers 144 Physical Triggers 144 Stakeholder-Driven Triggers 145 Exam Preparation Tasks 146
Chapter 10 The Risk Register 151 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 151 Foundation Topics 155 Register Functionality 155 Register Categories 156 Risk ID 157 Risk Event 157 Probability 157 Impact 158 Urgency 158 Propinquity 158 Proximity 159 Dormancy 159 Manageability and Controllability 159 Connectivity 159 Detectability (FMEA) 160 Strategic Impact 160 Overall Risk 160 Priority 161 Risk Owner 161 Area(s) Impacted 161 Escalation 161 Response Strategy Type 162 Response Strategy Narrative Description 163 Implementation Schedule 163 Implementation Review 163 Retirement Criteria 163 Follow-up 164 Outcome 164 Archival Location 164 Risk Classification 164 Exam Preparation Tasks 165
Part III: Risk Analytics
Chapter 11 Risk Qualification 171 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 172 Foundation Topics 176 Risk Sorting 176 Taxonomic Review 176 Risk Management Plan Application 177 Risk Ranking 181 Group Risk Ranking 181 Individual Risk Ranking 181 Fist to Five 182 Dot Voting 182 Roman Voting 183 Consensus 183 Nominal Group Technique 183 Stakeholder-Based Ranking Support 184 Exam Preparation Tasks 184
Chapter 12 Risk Quantification 191 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 192 Foundation Topics 197 Performance Data and Its Implications 197 Waterfall Performance Data 197 Budget at Completion 198 Planned Value 198 Earned Value 198 Actual Costs 199 Schedule Variance and Schedule Performance Index 199 Cost Variance and Cost Performance Index 199 Estimate at Completion 200 To-Complete Performance Index 201 Agile Performance Data 201 Sprint Completion 201 User Stories Completion 202 Story Point Completion 203 General Versus Detailed Quantitative Analysis 203 General Analysis 204 Detailed Analysis 209 Sensitivity Analysis Tools 210 Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis 210 Tornado Diagram 211 Network Diagram Sensitivity Analysis (Critical Path) 211 Ishikawa Diagram Analysis (Root Cause) 212 Decision Tree Analysis 212 Relative Risk Weight and Priority 214 Exam Preparation Tasks 214
Chapter 13 Risk Complexity, Assessment, and Analysis 221 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 221 Foundation Topics 226 Risk Complexity 226 Root Cause Analysis (Ishikawa) 226 SWOT Analysis 226 Tree Diagrams 227 Fault Trees 228 Decision Trees 229 Risk Interconnectedness 231 Risk at the Organizational Level 232 Threat Versus Opportunity 233 Exam Preparation Tasks 234
Part IV: Risk Management and Resolution
Chapter 14 Response Planning 239 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 240 Foundation Topics 244 Opportunity Versus Threat Strategies 244 Opportunity Strategies 244 Passive Acceptance 244 Active Acceptance 245 Exploitation 245 Enhancement 245 Sharing 246 Escalation 246 Threat Strategies 246 Avoidance 247 Mitigation 248 Transfer 248 Escalation 249 Action Plans and Risk Owners 249 Action Plans 249 Agile Action Plans 250 Predictive Action Plans 250 Risk Owners 250 Resolution Metrics and Communication 251 Resolution Metrics and Evaluation 251 Workarounds 253 Response Communication 253 Organizational Impacts 254 Tolerances 254 Policy 254 Compliance 254 Objectives 255 Exam Preparation Tasks 255
Chapter 15 Response Implementation 261 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 262 Foundation Topics 266 Response Plans Versus Contingencies 266 Stakeholder Response Reactions 267 Nature of the Response 267 Personal/Professional Implementation Involvement 268 Personal/Professional Tolerances 269 Residual Risk and Its Implications 270 Secondary Risk and Its Implications 270 Exam Preparation Tasks 271
Part V: Tracking and Closing Out Risks
Chapter 16 Data Collection 277 "Do I Know This Already?" Quiz 277 Foundation Topics 282 Gathering Information 282 Data Sources 282 Degrees of Accuracy 283 Ranking Approach Efficacy 284 High-Probability Risk Realization 284 High-Impact Risk Realization 285 Resilience 286 Anti-fragility 286 Overall Risk and Project Influence 286 Contrasting Project and Organizational Risk 288 Project Risks in an Organizational Context 289 Organizational Risk Taking in a Project Context 289 Organizational Aspects as Risk Sources/